1 in 8 Chance of Catastrophic
Solar Mega storm by 2020
Jiwoo Kim
Mr. Youell
Science Ext.
1/9/2014
There was always potential threat
from outer space but never like this time. It has been calculated that there is
approximately a stunning 12% chance of the Earth experiencing a massive mega
flare erupting from the sun in the next decade. It is estimated that this event
could potentially cause trillions of dollars’ worth collateral damage and take
up to a decade for full recovery.
The last gigantic solar storm known
as the Carrington Event occurred in 1859 and was named after Richard Carrington
who observed an enormous solar flare erupt (See figure 1), emitting fast
charged particles that interact with the Earth’s atmosphere causing an Aurora (See
figure 2).
Auroras may be beautiful but the
charged particles could cause severe damage to electronics. As a result of the
Carrington Event, telegraph stations caught on fire, their networks experienced
major outages and magnetic observatories recorded disturbances in the Earth’s
field that were literally off the scale.
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Figure 1: Massive plasma solar flare erupt from the
surface of the sun in the Carrington Event 1st Sept 1859 observed by Richard
Carrington
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Figure
2: Frederic Edwin Church's 1865 painting "Aurora Borealis."
Some speculate that Church took his inspiration from the Great Auroral Storm of
1859.
That a rival to this event has a
12% chance of occurring within the next decade was surprising to space physicist Pete Riley, senior
scientist at Predictive Science in San Diego, California, who published the estimate in Space Weather on Feb. 23. He was able to
estimate the chance of an enormous solar flare by looking at historical
databases and calculating the relation between the size and occurrence of solar
flares.
If a similar event was to occur in the
modern electronic dependent world, the storm could have catastrophic
consequences. Auroras damage electrical power grids and may contribute to
the erosion of oil and gas pipelines. They can disrupt GPS satellites and
disturb or even completely black out radio communication on Earth.
“A longer-term outage would likely
include, for example, disruption of the transportation, communication, banking,
and finance systems, and government services; the breakdown of the distribution
of potable water owing to pump failure; and the loss of perishable foods and
medications because of lack of refrigeration,” the NRC report said.
But such possibilities are only the
worst-case scenario and I believe that the damage can be alleviated if power
and communication companies are prepared. This would mean that they would have
to receive a warning beforehand so the satellites relatively close to the Earth
are required to measure the strength and orientation of the storm.
“It’s like being able to see a
cyclone coming but not knowing the wind speed until it hits your boat 50 miles
off the coast,” Robert Rutledge, lead of the forecast office at the NOAA/National Weather Service
Space Weather Prediction Center.
I agree with Robert Rutledge and believe we can take
measures to mitigate the damage.
Additional resources:
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Hey Jiwoo! I really enjoyed reading your article. I especially liked your opinions on this event and your pictures as well. Your opinion to me as a reader meant a lot, so good job with that. It is truly amazing that there is 12% chance of our Earth experiencing a massive eruption in the next decade. Does this mean that in 2, 3 decades this percentage will be larger? Great job!
ReplyDeleteJiwoo,
ReplyDeleteI really enjoyed your article. You gave a very good description of the story and the potential effects of having a solar storm happen within the next decade. Also I like how you gave your opinion and how you included what we can do in order to prepare for an event like this. My only question is, what is the most likely outcome of a solar flare like this occurring? Great Post!
Thanks for positive feedback. If this actually occurred, I think it will only cause minor problems as long as people are alert. This story is broadcasted on famous news programs like CNN so I think people will be prepared IF this solar storm occurs.
DeleteJiwoo, I really enjoyed reading your article because in my opinion it included good description of your topic. I also liked how you had well labeled pictures and that you included your opinion in as well. But the thing I liked the most is that you not only included what can happen but you included what the consequences would be so, good job! My question would be: will the chances of a solar storm occurring increase of decrease over the next decade?
ReplyDelete